The share of fossil power in Türkiye could fall to one fifth by 2035

Wind and solar to quadruple by 2035

Türkiye’s most recently announced targets include installed renewable and nuclear capacity. While 2035 targets have been raised by 45%, 2030 targets are unchanged.

The recently announced targets aim for a quadrupling of wind and solar energy capacity, from 32 GW in 2024 to 120 GW in 2035. In 2030, the target for wind and solar installed capacity is 51 GW in total. While an average of 3.1 GW wind and solar power plants are planned to be commissioned every year until 2030, to reach the new 2035 targets this amount will need to increase to 13.8 GW annually after 2030. This would be an enormous step up, and indicates that the 2030 target should be raised to start delivering towards the 2035 target in the near-term.

By 2030, renewable energy capacity excluding wind and solar is planned to be raised by 4 GW compared to the end of 2024, while 4.8 GW of installed capacity is targeted for nuclear energy. A further 2.4 GW of nuclear power capacity is planned to be commissioned between 2030 and 2035, while no increase in other renewable energy capacity is foreseen in the same period.

Targets put wind and solar at half of Türkiye’s electricity in 2035

Fossil fuel electricity generation is expected to fall below its 2024 level if the 2035 targets are achieved. Assuming no curtailment due to generation exceeding hourly electricity demand, the share of wind and solar in electricity generation could reach 49% in 2035 if Türkiye’s plans are realised. Under these assumptions, the share of fossil fuels in electricity generation could fall to less than 20%. 

The latest plan does not include a projection for the future electricity mix with the targeted capacities. For this reason, estimates for Türkiye’s generation mix for 2035 based on  installed capacity targets for that year were made using the previous plan as a reference. It is assumed that the remaining demand from renewable and nuclear energy generation will be met by fossil fuelled power plants.

However, to achieve Türkiye’s 2035 targets, attention needs to turn to making progress by 2030. A decline in electricity generation from fossil fuels is unlikely by then, due to both the projected high demand growth and the unambitious wind and solar targets for that date. Demand is expected to increase by nearly 113 TWh in 2030 compared to 2024 , while wind and solar are projected to increase by only 44 TWh. Taking into account electricity generation from other renewables and nuclear energy, an increase of 16 TWh in electricity generation from fossil-fuelled power plants is expected by 2030. In a dry year, this could rise to 35 TWh. 

Therefore, with the most recent targets, the share of wind and solar energy in electricity generation will only increase from 18% to 23% in 2030, and the share of fossil fuels in electricity generation will only decrease from 55% in 2024 to 45%. If electricity demand is lower than planned, these ratios will improve in favour of renewable energy.

Targeting growth in storage and exports

The climate strategy also sets targets for battery storage capacity in 2030 and 2035 of 2.1 GW and 7.5 GW respectively. However, these capacities are considerably lower than the battery project pipeline that will be installed alongside wind and solar power plants (34 GW). The fact that most of these battery capacities allocated by the state are not expected to be commissioned until 2035, even in the official targets, raises a question mark in terms of the functionality of the capacity allocation mechanism.

With rapid wind and solar growth, storage and exports can help make use of excess generation during peak hours where demand is exceeded. Official targets map out growth for these areas, but a focus will be needed on implementation to ensure they keep pace with renewables.

Batteries are not the only way to store energy. Türkiye’s hydroelectric power plants, with dams close to 24 GW capacity, work like batteries by storing water and then releasing it to generate electricity during hours of increased consumption. As a country rich in hydroelectric capacity, Türkiye can provide diversity in energy production and storage by installing pumped storage hydroelectric power plants, a technology over a hundred years old, to its portfolio, while balancing the increasing production of wind and solar.

Exporting power is another option to benefit from wind and solar when they generate more than domestic electricity demand. In Türkiye’s new roadmap, a significant increase in interconnection capacity, that will enhance electricity exports, is also planned. The electricity export capacity, which was 2.3 GW in 2024, is planned to increase to 6.8 GW in 2035. Electricity import capacity is planned to increase from 1.4 GW to 6.6 GW.